This month the Canterbury story is encouraging, although the national backdrop is more complicated. Canterbury has returned to first place in ASB's Regional Economic Scoreboard, supported by employment growth, strong local spending, population growth and a modest rise in house prices. Trade Me's August Property Pulse also shows Canterbury asking prices moving ahead of a largely flat national market. At the same time, inflation and interest-rate risks are moving back into focus.

For property owners, that combination is important. The local economy continues to support housing and rental demand, but borrowing and operating costs may remain under pressure. My view is that the fundamentals in Christchurch remain sound, while careful pricing, good property selection and realistic cash-flow planning matter as much as ever.

Canterbury Returns to the Top

ASB’s June quarter scoreboard ranks the economies of New Zealand’s 16 regional council areas across 11 measures, including employment, retail trade, construction and house prices. Canterbury moved back into first place after one quarter away, followed by Taranaki and Southland.

The result is broad-based. Canterbury recorded the country's strongest annual growth in core retail sales at 8.8%. Employment increased 2.6%, while unemployment fell from 4.4% in March to 3.6% in June. House prices rose 3.3% over the year even as the national index moved backwards, and the region's population grew 1.1%.

What a Strong Canterbury Result Means for Property Owners

Employment and population growth are two of the best supports for stable rental demand. When jobs are available, households are better placed to meet their housing costs, while population growth adds to the number of people needing homes.

Canterbury's retail result also appears to be driven by locals rather than a short-term tourism surge, with tourism spending down 4% while core retail spending rose strongly. Firm export earnings and Fonterra's $3.2 billion capital return have helped rural regions, while Canterbury also benefits from its broader base across agriculture, construction, education, manufacturing and services.

What This Means in Practice

A number one ranking is positive, but it is not a guarantee that every property will rise in value or that every advertised rent will be accepted. I know I keep saying this, but Christchurch remains a collection of micro-markets. The best results still come from knowing the area you are buying in. That means buying well, understanding the likely tenant and any potential maintenance, and setting a rent the market will support.

My View on the OCR

I have deliberately been a little vague lately about where I think the OCR will go and have even sat on my hands rather than write about it. I feel we are now at the stage where we need to roll our sleeves up and crack on with the things we can control, regardless of whether the next OCR move is up, down or no change. As we know, the Reserve Bank lifted it to 2.75% on 2 September and has been clear that future decisions will depend on inflation and how the wider economy develops. Forecasts are useful, but they also move as the facts change.

I’m not suggesting that we should ignore interest rates. We should still review lending early, allow for realistic borrowing costs, keep some cash flexibility and make property decisions that work on today's numbers rather than waiting for perfect conditions. The rent, presentation, maintenance, tenant selection and vacancy period will often have more influence on the year's result than trying to guess the exact timing of the next OCR change.

The median sale price was slightly above the $686,000 recorded in August last year, while sales volumes were lower. That looks more like a steady market than a boom. For owners, stable values are welcome, but the investment still needs to work through rent, occupancy and manageable running costs.

Business Confidence Is Holding Up

ANZ's September Business Outlook shows business confidence easing slightly but remaining high at 52%. Expected own activity held at 48%, while reported past activity fell to 11%.

Businesses remain positive about the year ahead, although recent trading conditions are less convincing. For property owners, this supports a recovering economy, but one that is not improving evenly across every household, sector or region.

The Costs Owners Need to Watch

Tony Alexander's latest investor survey found respondents were more concerned about insurance and council rates than interest deductibility. House prices, interest rates and maintenance costs were also prominent. That matches what we see in practice: weekly rent matters, but so does the full annual cost of holding the property.

• Review lending well before a fixed term expires and discuss the available options with a qualified adviser.

• Allow for realistic increases in insurance, rates and routine maintenance when setting an annual budget.

• Deal with small maintenance items before they become expensive repairs or affect a tenancy.

• Base rent expectations on achieved local evidence and tenant demand, not national headlines.

• Keep enough cash flexibility for a vacancy, an insurance excess or an unexpected repair.

Interest Deductibility Update

Labour has now said it would leave the current interest-deductibility settings in place if elected, choosing to pursue its capital gains tax policy instead. That removes one immediate source of uncertainty for residential investors, although election policies can still change before they become law. I think we all breathed a sigh of relief when that was announced. Both sides of the House have now given investors a little more comfort moving forward.

Trade Me Rental Activity Is Improving

The latest public Trade Me activity data shows a rental market with more people searching and fewer new properties coming online. There were 5.17 million rental searches nationally in August, up 4% from a year earlier, while 11,402 new listings represented a 4% annual decline.

Christchurch rental searches were up 8% year on year, which is a positive signal as we move into spring. The average listing remained online for 18 days, down from the 22 days we had been experiencing. Stronger search activity should help well-presented homes, but it does not mean every property can carry a high asking rent. Enquiries, viewing attendance and applications still tell us whether the price is working.

Spring Leasing Rewards a Strong First Week

Spring usually brings more tenant movement and more competing properties. That makes the first week of a campaign particularly important. A clean, well-presented home with good photographs and a credible asking rent will usually generate better enquiry and a stronger applicant pool. Starting too high can use up the period of greatest attention, and a later reduction will not always bring back applicants who moved on.

What Trade Me Is Showing Across Our Markets

Trade Me's latest agent reports show how quickly rentals are moving and how tenant demand compares with new supply by property size. The figures cover the four weeks to 27 September 2026 and should be read alongside the enquiries, viewing attendance and applications we see for each property. The commentary below also draws on the rent-band search data contained in the full Trade Me agent reports. Navy represents tenant searches and green represents new listings.

At 18 days, Christchurch is steady for the latest period, while the broader trend is slightly downward. Search demand is concentrated in the $600 and $700 weekly rent bands and is broadly aligned with the share of new listings through the core $500–$800 range. The most notable change this month is the balance between supply and demand in the two-bedroom market. We now see an oversupply only in the four-bedroom market.

Selwyn is the quickest of the three markets at 17 days, down 5.6% over the latest four weeks. The $600 and $700 bands dominate both searches and new listings. On the supply side, it is pretty much the same picture we have continued to see: good supply of three- and four-bedroom properties, while two-bedroom properties remain in short supply.

Waimakariri has moved out to 20 days, up 25%. The overall trend is downward, although there remains some volatility in the market. Demand remains concentrated between $500 and $800, although new listings are more heavily concentrated in the $600 and $700 bands than tenant searches. That does not suggest an absence of demand; it indicates more competition in the main part of the market and makes the first week of a campaign especially important. By property type, two-bedroom properties are again in short supply, three-bedroom supply is about right, and four-bedroom properties are well ahead of demand in the Waimakariri area.

What I Am Watching Through October

• The latest Trade Me Rental Price Index and whether Canterbury rental growth remains ahead of the national result. This is due any day now.

• Fixed mortgage rates and wholesale funding costs, while keeping our focus on decisions owners can actually control.

• Christchurch employment and rental enquiry, particularly for mainstream three-bedroom family homes.

• The amount and quality of new rental supply coming to market through spring.

• Election announcements that could materially change the tax or regulatory settings for residential property owners.

The Bigger Picture

Canterbury's return to the top of the regional rankings is a genuine positive. Employment is growing, unemployment remains low relative to the national rate, local spending is strong and house prices have edged higher. Those are sound foundations for rental demand.

The national setting still warrants caution. Inflation is above the Reserve Bank’s target band, unemployment nationally is at an 11-year high and borrowing costs may rise further. For owners, the sensible response is to focus on the individual property: protect cash flow, maintain the asset, set a rent the market will accept and avoid unnecessary vacancy. Canterbury continues to compare well with the rest of the country, but execution still matters.

As always, thank you for trusting us to manage your investment property. We are always here in your corner. If you want to talk through a recent rent review, plan maintenance, consider another purchase or simply discuss what we are seeing in your part of Christchurch, please give us a call.

Hamish and the Team at A1